Is $22 Trillion a Tipping Point?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

National debt is generally a slow-moving variable whose expected value should be incorporated in market prices.

The evidence suggests there has not been a strong relation between country debt and equity market returns.

The challenge of trying to outguess the markets based on macroeconomic indicators can come at the opportunity cost of missing out on what the market has to offer.

As of the end of 2020, the US debt held by the public amounted to $22 trillion, an increase of approximately $5 trillion from the year before and well over double the level from a decade ago.1 This trend may be worrisome for investors expecting an adverse impact on stock returns once the bill for all this spending comes due. However, the relation between country debt and stock markets is complex, in part because sovereign solvency is dependent upon many factors other than just debt level.

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Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) with its primary place of business in the state of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. References to registration with the SEC do not imply any endorsement or approval of the qualifications of the firm, nor do they imply that the firm’s representatives have attained a particular level of skill or training. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

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