Why a Stock Peak Isn’t a Cliff

Many investors may think a market high is a signal stocks are overvalued or have reached a ceiling. However, they may be surprised to find that the average returns one, three, and five years after a new month-end market high are similar to the average returns over any one-, three-, or five-year period.

• In looking at all monthly closing levels between 1926 and 2021 for the S&P 500 Index, 30% of the monthly observations were new highs.

• After those highs, the average annualized compound returns ranged from over 14% one year later to more than 10% over the next five years. Those results were close to average returns over any given period of the same length.

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Robert J. Pyle, CFP®, CFA is president of Diversified Asset Management, Inc. (DAMI). DAMI is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) with its primary place of business in the state of Colorado. DAMI will only transact business in other states to the extent DAMI has made the requisite notice filings or obtained the necessary licensing in such state. No follow up or individualized responses to persons in other jurisdictions that involve either rendering or attempting to render personalized investment advice for compensation will be made absent compliance with applicable legal requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. References to registration with the SEC do not imply any endorsement or approval of the qualifications of the firm, nor do they imply that the firm’s representatives have attained a particular level of skill or training. To contact Robert, call 303-440-2906 or e-mail info@diversifiedassetmanagement.com.

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